Jimmy points me to this article, "Why most discovered true associations are inflated," by J. P. Ioannidis. As Jimmy pointed out, this is exactly what we call type M (for magnitude) errors. I completely agree with Ioannidis's point, which he seems to be making more systematically than David Weakliem and I did in our recent article on the topic. My only suggestion beyond what Ioannidis wrote has to do with potential solutions to the problem. His ideas include: "being cautious about newly discovered effect sizes, considering some rational down-adjustment, using analytical methods that correct…

